Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 01 2023 09:12:20

ACUS48 KWNS 010912
SWOD48
SPC AC 010910

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Day 4/Wednesday - Northern FL to the Coastal Carolinas...

Some severe-thunderstorm potential could persist into Day
4/Wednesday ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front into parts of
northern FL, southeast GA and perhaps the coastal Carolinas. A
large-scale upper trough will continue to shift east, with stronger
ascent focused north from the Mid-South toward the Mid-Atlantic.
Currently, more favorable vertical shear and strong ascent appear
displaced from better thermodynamics. At least isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible, though uncertainty is too
high to delineate a 15% severe area at this time.

....Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...

The surface cold front should be offshore from the Atlantic coast by
Day 5/Thursday morning. Strong surface high pressure will persist
for much of the rest of the period over much of the CONUS, ensuring
Gulf moisture remains offshore. This will result in stable
boundary-layer conditions and severe thunderstorms are not expected
the remainder of the period.

...Leitman.. 01/01/2023

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