Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 31 2022 08:19:43 ACUS03 KWNS 310819 SWODY3 SPC AC 310818 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Dec 31 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night from eastern Oklahoma and Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas and vicinity. Damaging gusts and tornadoes will be the main hazards with these storms. ....OK/TX/LA/AR and Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in somewhat better agreement compared to 24 hours ago. However, some differences in timing of the ejecting mid/upper trough, and in evolution of the surface low persist, resulting in continued uncertainty regarding north and east extent of severe potential. A strong large-scale mid/upper trough is forecast over the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity early Monday. This system will eject east/northeast, with most guidance indicating a neutral to negative tilt to the trough as it moves over the Plains. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains to the mid/lower MS Valley. A 50+ kt low-level jet is expected to be oriented over the ArkLaTex vicinity by late Monday afternoon, spreading northeast toward the Ohio Valley Monday night. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward as a surface low deepens over the central Plains and shifts east/northeast through the period. As this occurs, a dryline/Pacific front will shift east across the southern Plains during the afternoon, and into the Ozark Plateau and Texas Coastal Plain overnight. Surface dewpoints around 64-68 F are forecast as far north as central/southern AR across a broad warm sector, from eastern OK/TX toward the Lower MS Valley. The northward extent of quality moisture return remains somewhat in question, but near 60 F dewpoints should nose into southern MO, eastward toward western TN. Cloud cover and precipitation also will limit destabilization, especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, sufficient destabilization is expected across much of eastern OK/TX into AR/LA, with the greatest risk focused near southeast OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Favorable vertical shear will support organized, rotating convection with an attendant risk from potentially significant damaging gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ...Leitman.. 12/31/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .