Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 16:54:14

ACUS02 KWNS 301654
SWODY2
SPC AC 301652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts
of the Southeast tomorrow/Saturday evening.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Southeast as a second upper
trough impinges on the California Coastline tomorrow/Saturday.
Across the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS, adequate low-level
moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of
a weak surface low accompanying the mid-level trough. Strong flow
aloft overspreading the low-level moisture will provide adequate
buoyancy, shear, and lift for organized thunderstorms across the
Southeast, with a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

....Southeast...
The onset of diurnal heating will support surface temperatures and
dewpoints rising into the 60s to near 70 F, with tall and thin
(500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE evident in point forecast soundings given
modest tropospheric lapse rates. Southwesterly 850 mb flow exceeding
35 kts, with even stronger flow aloft, will promote elongated
hodographs and associated 40+ kts of effective speed shear for some
storm organization. The severe threat is expected to remain
relatively isolated given limited instability. Nonetheless, some of
the stronger storms may produce a couple of damaging gusts or
perhaps a brief tornado or two, starting from the FL/AL coastline
area during the late morning hours and progressing eastward with
time to portions of southern SC by early evening.

...Squitieri.. 12/30/2022

$$

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