Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2079
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 15:40:10

ACUS11 KWNS 301540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301539=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-301815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...southwest Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301539Z - 301815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will continue through early afternoon.  A watch is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 1530z shows a linear MCS
along the central Gulf Coast, with the most intense portion over far
southern Mississippi from near Hattiesburg south to the New Orleans
metro.  Isolated severe gusts or wind damage have occurred with this
line over the past few hours as it moves generally east at 30 mph.
Instability over land remains modest with MLCAPE generally at or
below 750 J/kg and higher instability expected to remain offshore. A
continued isolated severe risk is expected through early afternoon
as the storms move east given a downstream environment with MLCAPE
of 500-800 J/kg and around 40 kts of of west/southwest effective
shear. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will remain the primary risk.
Some potential may exist for transient low-level rotation with
storms moving inland ahead of the line, or with embedded
circulations within the line as low-level shear appears sufficient
to support at least a localized risk.

The isolated nature of the severe risk should preclude the need for
a watch.

...Bunting/Hart.. 12/30/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41LWNGzvEsTnTgQCju_ktP4FNeaXQdh4j1c4uynRHUxYqkPExkKLhvdJKp4gPEVcx-UrZVqBb=
apWTDcZvfSnN4xgpIA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30008734 29958894 30208949 30648955 31128937 31528925
            31768880 31728825 31678739 31528683 31198654 30278668
            30008734=20


=3D =3D =3D
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