Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2078
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 13:42:38

ACUS11 KWNS 301342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301342=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-301615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301342Z - 301615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible over the next
few hours across the central Gulf Coast area. Wind damage and/or a
brief tornado will be possible, but the threat should remain too
marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows a continuous
line of strong thunderstorms located from just southeast of Jackson,
Mississippi extending south-southwestward into southeast Louisiana.
Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing a corridor of weak
instability with MLCAPE generally in the 250 to 750 J/kg range. In
addition, the Slidell, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near
60 knots with 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 350 to 400 m2/s2
range. In spite of the weak instability, the shear environment may
support an isolated severe threat with the stronger cells embedded
in the line. Although wind damage would be the greatest threat, a
brief tornado would also be possible. The threat is expected to
remain marginal through late morning.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 12/30/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7WIRglEq5SpkCDZmSa3Xlz1BHdk7aexWywWZwP7OiA-ppiidbRtlIiYrLula3SpdwIZQ4ry49=
PDZ2FSL7WnAhpkYZW8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31938998 31279024 30389076 29949114 29729133 29389151
            29039157 28799134 28739076 28929025 29248989 29638957
            30158922 30958888 31538869 32128896 32258962 31938998=20


=3D =3D =3D
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