Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 10:04:15

AWUS01 KWNH 301004
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EST Fri Dec 30 2022

Areas affected...southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301001Z - 301500Z

Summmary...Flash flood potential continues across southern
Louisiana and eventually southwestern Mississippi, although the
progressive nature of the convection and movement toward areas of
higher FFG thresholds should result in a less widespread threat
through 15Z.

Discussion...Recent convective trends indicate that storms across
southeastern Texas earlier have begun to forward propagate and
grow upscale as expected.  There's still a fair amount of cell
mergers just south of a distinct bow echo located north of Lake
Charles that maintained relatively high rainfall rates (into the
1-2 inch/hr range per MRMS).  These cell mergers are resulting
from pre-frontal convection developing over adjacent Gulf of
Mexico waters and streaming northward toward the maturing cold
pool over southwestern Louisiana.  1.2-1.5 inch PW values and
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE along with the current orientation of the
convection should maintain these locally heavy rainfall rates in
the short term.

While the extent of continued upscale growth is unclear,
indications are that the convective regime should continue to
translate eastward across southern Louisiana this morning,
reaching the Mississippi River through 15Z or so. FFG thresholds
are dramatically higher (in the 3-4 inch/hr range) downstream of
ongoing storms.  This suggests that any ongoing flash flood threat
should gradually become more isolated/limited with time and
focused on areas that are low-lying and/or sensitive to excesssive
rainfall.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8i0zhnJeB_4WLlRZ7eRlEKccdAqxK5Yt8Q1zsQcMB7kiwmPbPcjEbm_gtSvnP54yOkAB=
dmBXTJiuhFUQlV8ORwC2CCg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32169077 31588963 29818928 29239029 29289141=20
            29719362 30469378 30959338 31289310 31689284=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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