Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 05:31:40

ACUS01 KWNS 300531
SWODY1
SPC AC 300530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two are possible
later this morning into this afternoon along the central Gulf Coast.

....Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
from southwest MS into central/eastern LA and the adjacent Gulf of
Mexico. Deep-layer shear in advance of a mid/upper-level trough over
the southern Plains will likely remain sufficient for organized
convection as the line moves eastward, while some enhancement to
low-level shear/SRH (in association with a southerly low-level jet)
will support the potential for localized damaging gusts and perhaps
a brief tornado or two with stronger bowing segments and/or embedded
circulations.

Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and northeastward extent
of the severe threat, due to the initially rather cool and stable
boundary-layer conditions from southeast LA into southern MS/AL.
While continued low-level moistening is expected ahead of the line,
widespread cloudiness and weak diurnal heating may limit
surface-based instability through the morning, which would temper
the damaging-wind and tornado threat to some extent. Damaging-wind
and tornado probabilities have been kept at a Marginal Risk level
for now, but there is some potential for a corridor of greater
threat, if heating/destabilization in advance of the line is
stronger than currently anticipated.

Eventually, convection is expected to outpace the favorable
low-level moisture return, resulting in a definitive weakening trend
by late afternoon as storms approach southeast AL and the FL Big
Bend region.

...Dean/Wendt.. 12/30/2022

$$

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