Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 05:31:08

ACUS02 KWNS 300531
SWODY2
SPC AC 300529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama into southwest and central
Georgia through Saturday evening.

....AL/FL/GA...

A mid/upper shortwave trough extending from the MO Valley to the
Sabine River early Saturday will shift east through the period,
becoming oriented from the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic coast by
Sunday morning. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
overspread much of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold
front will track east across AL/GA and the FL Panhandle through the
day, with the front nearing the coastal Carolinas by Sunday morning.
Southerly low-level flow ahead of the boundary will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward, with mid/upper 60s as far north as southeast
AL/central GA.

Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will limit diurnal heating,
and higher-quality dewpoints (greater than 68 F) will remain
offshore over the Gulf. This will limit destabilization, with MLCAPE
values generally near or below 500 J/kg. However, moderate vertical
shear will overlap modest instability, creating sufficient
conditions for isolated organized strong/severe thunderstorms
through Saturday evening. Shear profiles will be favorable for
rotating storms, and strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible with any discrete cell or line segments that develop. The
north and east extent of the severe threat is a bit uncertain, and
some extension toward the Savannah River/GA Coast vicinity may be
needed in subsequent outlooks depending on trends in destabilization
and timing of convection.

...Leitman.. 12/30/2022

$$

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