Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2076
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 04:51:07

ACUS11 KWNS 300451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300450=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-300715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper TX Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 300450Z - 300715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat and perhaps a brief tornado
remain possible along the Upper Texas Coast for the next few hours.
Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A few rotating cells have occurred offshore from the
Upper TX Coast over the past couple of hours, with one recently
approaching the coast. A gradual increase in the south-southwesterly
low-level flow has been observed this evening in trends from the
KHGX VWP. Sufficient low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH around 100-200
m2/s2, should continue to encourage updraft rotation with any
low-topped cells that can persist offshore and subsequently approach
land. The primary limiting factor remains weak instability and
related poor boundary layer lapse rates. Neutral to weakly stable
0-1 km lapse rates depicted in RAP forecast sounding at GLS suggest
convection should tend to weaken as it approaches the coast. Even
so, a brief waterspout/tornado appears possible along immediate
coastal portions of the Upper TX Coast over the next few hours. A
sporadic strong/damaging wind gust may also occur. Due to the
marginal thermodynamic environment, the severe threat is expected to
stay rather isolated and near the coast. Accordingly, watch issuance
remains unlikely.

...Gleason/Grams.. 12/30/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-dYcQUufHE-YOFndh71GeKvmmzZpUJsbMOZwo8cnlyae3gZ5D5bQP-29IvGCn0tAxiuOiZX8C=
P-iCd07r8aqosJ-0jI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29069540 29419519 29869464 30019420 29969381 29719381
            28979471 28709507 29069540=20


=3D =3D =3D
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