Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 04:48:41

AWUS01 KWNH 300448
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-301045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022

Areas affected...eastern/southeastern Texas and western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300445Z - 301045Z

Summary...The ongoing flash flood threat should continue overnight
through at least 10Z.

Discussion...Deep, moist convection has materialized in earnest
especially across southeast Texas this evening.  MRMS rainfall
rates indicate areas of 2-3 inch/hr rainfall totals along an axis
from ~60 S CLL to near ~30 S GGG.  Additional areas of 2-3 inch/hr
rainfall rates were noted with more cellular, yet repeating
convection just southeast of the Houston Metro and southeast of
Shreveport.  The rainfall rates are not surprising given the
favorable environment storms are currently in (500-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE, 1.5 inch PW values).  So far, storms have not been able to
exhibit any upscale growth, allowing for training along current
axes of convection to prolong/enhance rainfall rates.  Both models
and CAMs point to this scenario continuing for at least 2-4 more
hours -- until some upscale growth can promote a slightly faster
eastward translation of storms that would effectively limit
training potential somewhat.

Even in the event that storms pick up more forward motion, cell
mergers (especially with open-warm-sector storms) and localized
training should promote areas of 2-3 inch/hr rainfall totals
through 1030Z.  This process (upscale growth) should occur as
mid/upper forcing continues to increase with a distinct mid-level
shortwave trough passing through north-central Texas.  Local
rainfall totals exceeding 6 inches cannot be completely ruled out
in this regime.  These rain rates are likely to cause at least
localized/urbanized flash flood issues through 1030Z.  Storms
should migrate into areas of southwestern Louisiana after 09Z and
reach the eastern extent of the discussion area toward 10Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7khuufICaDeshQ306LOTF06Q7oACJKw_xf_ZJtnLb61Hc_-tUN3bpm4jrr8bzMg1vonr=
UobVPblguxrw_I4dXWLgWAU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32939274 32539191 31149178 30019214 29649286=20
            29319485 29039587 29249636 30379637 31159592=20
            31979504 32749395=20

=3D =3D =3D
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