Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 23:59:39

AWUS01 KWNH 292359
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-300556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX & western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 292356Z - 300556Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have begun to train
near Houston while activity near Woodville & Jasper TX is heading
towards the earlier heavy rain footprint in western LA.  Hourly
totals to 2.5" with local amounts of 5" over saturating soils and
urban areas are a concern.

Discussion...A vaguely organized thunderstorm cluster has been
dropping heavy rainfall near Woodville & Jasper TX as of late,
with hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts toward 5" noted
via radar estimates.  Another set of narrow training bands has
also been trying to set up north and southeast of Houston TX.=20
Precipitable water values are in the 1.3-1.4" range.  ML CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg lies here per SPC mesoanalyses.  Inflow at 850 hPa
is south-southwest at 30-35 kts.  Effective bulk shear of 40-45
kts has led to various levels of organization thus far.

The guidance signal in this area is not as pronounced as areas
farther northwest.  However, heavy rainfall earlier today dropped
3-5" from Hemphill TX northeast towards Jonesboro LA, and there is
a real chance that this cluster will track over the footprint and
align into a training band over the next several hours.  Any
training convection over the Houston metropolitan area is a
concern.  Hourly rain totals up to 2.5" with local amounts to 5"
would likely produce flash flooding over saturating soils and
within urban areas.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8HYmxnyAxq-z4Z7o2lEYgsGuH4ealXLoKz1sIxkR0MeMVLNYlErytPMCZXL1-gDjgz-O=
4lymVIXfRdbFq6MJm5s6s9o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32849278 32739237 32299249 31519301 29949394=20
            28889528 29479563 30419550 30949469 31639403=20
            32599331=20

=3D =3D =3D
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