Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2075 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 23:14:35 ACUS11 KWNS 292314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292314=20 LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-300115- Mesoscale Discussion 2075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Areas affected...Parts of East Texas into Sabine River Valley Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 292314Z - 300115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms in East Texas and the Sabine River Valley may produce isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado this evening. The greater hail threat should exist farther to the west with a marginally greater tornado environment in the Sabine Valley into southwest Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to develop along a surface trough in East Texas along with other development within a confluence zone within the Sabine River Valley. A few areas in East Texas have warmed to the mid/upper 70s F, supporting around 1000 J/kg (with locally higher values) MLCAPE. Morning observed soundings showed a plume of 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates in central Texas. Storms along the surface trough will at least partially take advantage of these upstream lapse rates. Storms in this region would have slightly greater potential for marginally severe hail. However, deep-layer shear is also roughly parallel to the surface trough and these storms are likely to become linear more quickly. This trends has already become apparent on regional radar imagery late this afternoon. Other more discrete storms within the confluence zone farther east have shown signs of weak low-level rotation. Deep-layer shear is better oriented to the confluence axis to support a longer duration discrete mode. Though mid-level lapse rates are likely less steep with eastern extent, rotating storms would be capable of isolated large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. The tornado threat should be mitigated by generally weak low-level winds. Some increase is expected later this evening as the trough continues to approach, but the stronger 850 mb winds may be offset from the stronger storms near the coast. ...Wendt/Grams.. 12/29/2022 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-KFM2_yklb7WelGk50d5BqoYyY3EZvnK_NhZUPQhCzgYtWGqbgNPB032zd5ZV-kvR7Z99tIbl= 1H_-JH1rq3UcZk197c$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30209721 30929709 31639657 32719558 33219423 32839347 32119304 31089295 30259280 29169368 28679437 28659508 29209607 29669705 30209721=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .