Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 30 2022 00:46:35

ACUS01 KWNS 300046
SWODY1
SPC AC 300044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts, marginally severe hail, and a tornado or
two remain possible tonight from east Texas into western/central
Louisiana and southern Arkansas.

....East TX...Western/central LA...Southern AR...
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this evening near a weak surface
boundary across east-central/northeast TX, and also within a
warm-advection regime from southeast TX into southern AR. 00Z
soundings from CRP and SHV and recent objective mesoanalyses depict
weak-to-moderate buoyancy across the region (MLCAPE 750-1500 J/kg)
and moderate deep-layer shear, but storms have struggled to organize
thus far, due in part to unidirectional wind profiles and a tendency
for storm mergers. Most storms will likely remain subsevere through
the evening, but given the somewhat favorable environment and some
potential increase in low-level flow/shear with time, a few stronger
cells/clusters remain possible, posing a threat for isolated
marginal hail, locally damaging wind, and perhaps a brief tornado.

Overnight, convection is eventually expected to evolve into a more
extensive north-south oriented QLCS, as storms move from east TX
into western/central LA. As this occurs, some threat for locally
damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two will spread eastward,
though a tendency for convection to become slightly elevated may
temper the severe risk to some extent.

...Dean.. 12/30/2022

$$

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