Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 19:49:35 ACUS01 KWNS 291949 SWODY1 SPC AC 291948 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MUCH WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two are possible mainly this afternoon and tonight, across parts of east/southeast Texas, western/central Louisiana and the Arklatex region. ....East TX/LA/Southern AR... Recent visible satellite imagery shows convection slowly deepening along the low-level moist axis from eastern TX into southern AR. Forecast soundings in this corridor suggest sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear for some risk of hail/damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado through the late afternoon and evening. This activity should slowly weaken a few hours after dark. Please refer to MCD #2074 for further short-term details. Another zone of convection is expected to intensify this evening near a strengthening low-level jet along the TX/LA coast. These storms may be somewhat discrete early in their life cycle, before organizing into one or more lines. Some consideration was made to upgrade a small parts of southeast TX and southwest LA to SLGT risk, but will maintain MRGL given limited time/space of threat and differences in short-term model guidance. ...Hart.. 12/29/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022/ ....East TX/western LA/southern AR this afternoon into tonight... A remnant lee cyclone will move north-northeastward from northeast KS toward WI, in association with a lead shortwave trough. A separate/upstream shortwave trough will progress east-northeastward from TX Big Bend to east TX by the end of the period. A plume of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s) will continue to spread inland from the western Gulf of Mexico to east TX/western LA/southern AR through late evening. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within this moisture plume near the Sabine River, and additional convection is expected through the day along the moist axis and along/immediately east of a surface trough in TX. The storm environment will be characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, with modestly long/curved hodographs (effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2). Within the broader bands of convection, some embedded/weak supercell structures are expected, with an attendant threat for isolated wind damage/marginally severe hail and a brief/weak tornado or two later this afternoon through late evening. Overnight, convection will spread eastward in one or more bands across AR and western LA, with somewhat larger buoyancy confined over time to southwest LA. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .