Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2074
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 17:52:03

ACUS11 KWNS 291751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291751=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-292015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291751Z - 292015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through
late afternoon. A couple damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
or instance of marginal severe hail may occur. The sparse severe
threat suggests a WW issuance is not currently needed.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic/regional radar and water vapor satellite
imagery shows a gradual intensification of semi-discrete convection
embedded within confluence bands across western LA associated with a
WAA regime. 30 dBZ echo tops have recently been reaching the 30-45
kft range, with individual embedded cells showing brief bouts of
weak, transient low-level rotation. The mid-level trough continues
to slowly approach from the rest, resulting in a gradual
intensification of deep-layer speed shear per latest mesoanalysis
fields. RAP analysis fields also show an embedded 500 mb max across
central TX slowly approaching the MS Valley, which should further
augment deep-layer ascent. In addition, continued insolation of a
fairly moist low-level airmass is contributing to MLCAPE reaching
1000 J/kg. The increasing lift, buoyancy and shear should foster
continued trends of storm organization and intensification through
the afternoon.

However, MLCAPE should be constrained to tall-thin profiles given
6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and low-level directional shear
should also remain modest (especially around 3 km, as shown by
weaknesses in the latest KPOE VAD profiler data). As such, expected
storm modes should be brief LEWPS/transient supercells capable of
supporting a couple of strong wind gusts and perhaps a bout of
marginal severe hail or a brief tornado. Given the likely isolated
nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated. Additional rounds of thunderstorms (perhaps severe) are
likely later this evening into tonight, though this threat also
appears to be isolated. Nonetheless, later severe potential may be
addressed by additional MCDs as needed.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 12/29/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7pv_FYTozC9lsTXpRaXN0soaTzzQk6DW8gNpiyDBUpakzqgfC8b4UXCBjETDrl3itDpvmCBC6=
iXBSB9AVhJnAzPVPsU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30049714 32069550 33369422 33439308 33059262 32389245
            31599255 30919291 30419364 29989447 29669541 30049714=20


=3D =3D =3D
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