Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 10:01:32

ACUS48 KWNS 291001
SWOD48
SPC AC 290959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Confidence is increasing in a severe weather episode on Monday (day
4) and potentially on Tuesday, to the east of Monday's forecast area
(i.e., TN/MS/AL).  The EC model has trended towards a slower/farther
west projection of the mid-level shortwave trough and it is seems to
evolve differently than current GFS/older EC prognostications.
Consequently, the warm sector will probably encompass portions of
eastern OK on Monday afternoon as a cyclone deepens over the central
U.S.  Considered a 30-percent severe area centered over AR but
refrained from doing so since the recent runs of the EC have not
"locked in" a solution for the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough.
It was notable to document 1) a roughly 36-hr time lag in the
operational GFS model compared to the EC during the Monday and
Tuesday periods, and 2) GFS version of a less amplified ejecting
disturbance over the central U.S.  Model variability increases by
Tuesday (day 6) through Wednesday (day 7) with potential severe.
Models hint at a less active period for severe beginning by Thursday
(day 8).

...Smith.. 12/29/2022

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