Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 08:32:00

ACUS03 KWNS 290831
SWODY3
SPC AC 290830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday across
the contiguous United States.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over the lower MO/lower MS Valleys will
quickly move east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Sunday morning.
The latest EC, UKMET, and Canadian models show an area of low
pressure over the OH Valley Saturday morning developing east to be
near the New England coast by daybreak Sunday.  An attendant cold
front will push east across the Appalachians during the day and
through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states Saturday night.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Saturday morning over the northern Gulf of Mexico into the central
Gulf Coast.  Relatively weak lapse rates and considerable cloudiness
will likely limit heating/destabilization over the FL Panhandle
northward into AL/GA and into the Carolinas.  Operational models
(NAM vs. GFS/EC/Canadian) vary largely on the quality of moisture
into GA and SC during the day, and when combined with the expected
weak lapse rates, this introduces considerable uncertainty on the
magnitude of destabilization.  Yet, the forecast evolution of the
mid-level disturbance (i.e., intensification of the flow) will
conditionally support organized storm structures if sufficient
buoyancy is realized.  Will defer the potential inclusion of low
severe probabilities to later forecast updates due to model
variability.

...Smith.. 12/29/2022

$$

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