Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 08:29:22

FOUS30 KWBC 290829
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 29 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 30 2022

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE COASTAL
RANGES OF SOUTHERN OREGON, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....West...

Flash flooding concerns return to the West Coast as a pair of low
pressure systems arrive today. The first system will bring a round
of light rainfall to the coasts of the Pacific Northwest and
northern/central California early this morning. Rain rates should
be around 0.1in/hr across the region with PWATs remaining modest
at well below an inch. Forcing provided by a weak surface cold
front won't help to enhance amounts, but higher totals will still
be possible at higher elevations. The second round of
precipitation will be a bit more substantial and will arrive with
the entrance of another system later Thursday afternoon. Rain
rates will be a little higher at around 0.1-0.25in/hr. PWATs
between 0.75-1 inch should cause some flash flooding concerns over
already well saturated soils, burn scars and urban areas.

....Lower Mississippi Valley...

An upper trough over the Great Plains will cause height falls and
the return of southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico and
Mississippi Valley. Moist air advection will ensue with PWATs of
between 1-1.5 inches flowing from the central Gulf coast up
through the Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest. This
moist/unstable airmass, overrunning a coastal warm front, a dry
line and cold front to the west, will support convective
initiation over the Gulf coast and inland areas, where rain rates
may range between 0.25-1in/hr with locally higher amounts. The
latest 00z guidance is in good agreement with respect to the
orientation and magnitude of the axis of greatest QPF in the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley.

Kebede


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qIVQOg8H8R7kvwubKW2IO_y750IuvM1op5tVMGWgeL0=
alni3rmsLqywXDOEjL4gFXHgF40ysW2ovxfEak-hZAW39B8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qIVQOg8H8R7kvwubKW2IO_y750IuvM1op5tVMGWgeL0=
alni3rmsLqywXDOEjL4gFXHgF40ysW2ovxfEak-hOHUMc4M$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6qIVQOg8H8R7kvwubKW2IO_y750IuvM1op5tVMGWgeL0=
alni3rmsLqywXDOEjL4gFXHgF40ysW2ovxfEak-hYtoJ6j0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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