Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 29 2022 06:53:02

ACUS02 KWNS 290652
SWODY2
SPC AC 290651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible on Friday along the central
Gulf Coast.

....Central Gulf Coast...
An eastward-translating mid-level trough will move from northern
Mexico/TX to the central Gulf Coast with flow strengthening as it
moves to the Gulf and into LA/MS late.  Showers and a band of
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning over
south-central LA extending southward into the shelf waters of the
Gulf.  Although 0-2 km lapse rates will be modest, weak buoyancy
according to model forecast soundings (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) coupled
with a wind profile supporting organized storms, will support some
risk for isolated wind damage from the squall line.
Convection-allowing model guidance suggests this squall line will
move east during the day across southeast LA into coastal MS/AL
before weakening towards the FL Panhandle, as it moves east quicker
than the airmass can recover and become marginally unstable inland.
Scant buoyancy farther north near the I-20 corridor will limit the
threat for strong storms.

Late Friday night the mid-level trough will move into the LA/AR/MS,
with a zone of strengthening mid-level ascent overspreading northern
LA northeastward through the Delta region.  Models indicate isolated
thunderstorms will develop in response to this forcing moving into
the area.  Relatively cool mid-level temperatures may promote hail
growth with the stronger updrafts.  Uncertainty remains regarding
this scenario, precluding low severe hail probabilities at this
time.

...Smith.. 12/29/2022

$$

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