Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 28 2022 19:49:57

ACUS01 KWNS 281949
SWODY1
SPC AC 281948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners
today and along the northwest Gulf coast late tonight.

....20z Update...
The previous outlook remains on track regarding general thunderstorm
areas and reasoning, and no changes were made with this update.

...Bunting.. 12/28/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022/

....Synopsis...
A progressive shortwave trough will move eastward over the Four
Corners today, with the threat for isolated thunderstorms in
association with steep midlevel lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg
of SBCAPE.  Farther east, air mass modification and return flow is
underway across the western Gulf of Mexico, in response to lee
cyclogenesis across southwest KS.  The northwest Gulf coast will
likely remain capped until the very end of the period, when
low-level moistening and warm advection may become sufficient for
isolated/elevated thunderstorms in warm sector confluence bands.

$$

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