Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 28 2022 12:42:58 ACUS01 KWNS 281242 SWODY1 SPC AC 281241 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible in the Four Corners and in the Sabine River Valley today into tonight. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ....Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of phased shortwave troughs west of the Rockies, one currently over the central CA/NV border and the other farther south off the southern CA coast. These shortwaves are expected to progress quickly eastward, helping to deepen the cyclonic flow aloft in place over the western CONUS. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the lead waves, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures. Ascent attendant to this shortwave coupled with modest buoyancy associated with the cold mid-level temperatures will support the potential for a few lightning flashes in the Four Corners vicinity. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany the lead shortwaves, spreading eastward/northeastward across the southern and central Plains this afternoon/evening. This southwesterly flow aloft will promote lowering surface pressure across the Plains as well as eventual surface cyclogenesis across southeast CO. The resultant low is forecast to move northeastward across KS tonight. This evolution will promote moisture return across portions of the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, with 60s dewpoints expected to extend from south TX into much of east TX and western LA by tomorrow morning. Low to mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, limiting buoyancy, but a few lightning flashes are still possible within the warm-air advection showers expected in the southern TX/LA border vicinity early Thursday morning. ...Mosier.. 12/28/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .