Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 28 2022 09:34:54

ACUS48 KWNS 280934
SWOD48
SPC AC 280933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving across portions of the Southeast on Saturday (day 4).  It
remains uncertain regarding the quality of the airmass and moisture
return into the coastal plain of AL/GA and parts of the FL
Panhandle.  In wake of the aforementioned upper system, a brief
respite in severe potential appears likely on Sunday (day 5) as a
potent mid-level trough moves eastward across the Desert Southwest.
The mid-level disturbance is forecast to intensify as it moves into
the central U.S. on Monday.  An associated northward-advancing warm
sector will overspread the lower MS Valley as a surface low develops
northeastward from the OK-TX Panhandles to the mid MS Valley.  The
EC run-to-run consistency has increased confidence in a potential
severe episode.  Very strong flow through the troposphere and a
moist/conditionally unstable airmass will potentially be favorable
for severe activity (i.e., risk for damaging winds and tornadoes)
from the Arklatex Monday afternoon into the lower MS Valley Monday
evening/night and north-northeastward into the lower OH Valley late
Monday night.  Model uncertainty and potential convective
overturning prior to Tuesday render predictability too low during
the latter part of the extended period.

...Smith.. 12/28/2022

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