Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 28 2022 08:00:53

ACUS03 KWNS 280800
SWODY3
SPC AC 280759

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for
Friday.

....Central Gulf Coast...
A lower-latitude mid-level trough will move from northern Mexico
eastward to LA and the northern Gulf of Mexico during the period.  A
surface front trailing south-southwest from the Great Lakes into the
Arklatex will move little during the day before accelerating
eastward Friday evening/night into the lower MS Valley.  Model
guidance shows surface dewpoints over LA into southern parts of
MS/AL in the lower 60s deg F.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing Friday morning within a zone of weak
low-level warm air advection over LA and spreading
east-northeastward during the day into MS and southern AL.  The lack
of surface cyclogenesis inland of the Gulf Coast will likely hinder
appreciable low-level mass response from occurring and limit the
magnitude of destabilization via marginal moisture quality.
Nonetheless, strong mid to high-level flow will both strengthen and
overspread the central Gulf Coast during the period.  A couple of
strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty remains to
preclude low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

...Smith.. 12/28/2022

$$

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