Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 28 2022 06:49:24

ACUS02 KWNS 280649
SWODY2
SPC AC 280647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Wed Dec 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST
TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday
night from east Texas and western Louisiana northward into western
Arkansas.

....Arklatex...
A mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from northern NM and
southern CO to northern MI by early Friday morning.  An area of low
pressure extending from KS into MN will consolidate as a low moves
to near Lake Superior late.  A Pacific cold front will push east
across parts of the southern Great Plains into the lower MO Valley.

The initial stage of moisture return into coastal plain of east
TX/LA will be ongoing Thursday morning.  Low-level warm air
advection will be the primary contributor to increasing theta-e
across the Arklatex.  Models continue to show a plume of upper 50s
dewpoints spreading into central AR with lower 60s farther south in
southeast TX.  With the mid-level feature only expected to glance
the region, weak but persistent low-level warm air advection and
moistening will likely aid in scattered showers/thunderstorms
developing by late afternoon, despite the prevalence of clouds
inhibiting strong heating.  Veering and strengthening flow with
height into the mid levels will favor organized storms with the
stronger updrafts, especially over TX/LA where greater buoyancy is
forecast according to forecast soundings (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE).
Hodographs imply a transition to linear storm modes by early-mid
evening.  This activity will likely shift eastward into the
overnight and weaken late as instability wanes with eastward extent.

...Smith.. 12/28/2022

$$

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