Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 27 2022 19:43:53

ACUS01 KWNS 271943
SWODY1
SPC AC 271942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2022

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The threat for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant an outlook
area.

....Discussion...
Aside from a couple of recent lightning flashes over the higher
terrain of Shasta County in Northern California, and earlier
northwest of the San Francisco bay area, no lightning has been
observed over the CONUS today.  This should largely remain the
situation through the end of the period, and thus no changes to the
outlook appear necessary at this time.

...Goss.. 12/27/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022/

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland from the Pacific
coast to the Great Basin by tonight with widespread precipitation
across CA.  Observations and model forecast soundings suggest that
buoyancy will remain shallow/weak along the northern CA/OR coasts as
the cooler midlevel temperatures and steeper low-level lapse rates
spread inland, and lightning flashes will be sparse at best.
Otherwise, lingering surface ridging along the Gulf/Atlantic coasts
will confine any modifying air mass to offshore waters through
tonight.

$$

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