Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 27 2022 18:28:16

AWUS01 KWNH 271828
FFGMPD
CAZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2022

Areas affected...Central and southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 271826Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...A gradually weakening atmospheric river will continue to
gradually settle southward down the West Coast through the
afternoon hours and into the early evening.  Widespread moderate
to heavy rainfall is expected across the coastal ranges and the
eastern foothills of the Sierra Nevada.  Some localized minor
flooding will be possible, manly near burn scar locations.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing atmospheric river continues across much
of central California late this morning, and this moisture plume
will continue to settle southward over the course of the day along
with an overall weakening trend as suggested by the latest
ARDT-IVT projections, with projected IVT values generally on the
order of 750-1000 kg/m/s in the core of the plume.  These values
will be highest near the immediate coast and waning farther inland.

Even though the IVT trends will be lessening over time, continued
strong warm air advection ahead of the cold front, along with a
nearly perpendicular orientation of the deep layer moisture
transport to the mountain ranges, will generally support hourly
rainfall rates on the order of a quarter to half an inch per hour
across the windward terrain through the mid-afternoon hours, and
then abating slightly going forward into the early evening hours
as the weakening AR reaches southern California.  Total additional
rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches is forecast for the higher
terrain, and perhaps a little higher in some localized instances.=20
This could lead to enhanced run-off issues in the vicinity of
recent burn scar locations and also across urban areas.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5Fwbr5WgX1nR5BQ2dIjULr6WSpEMzIsOGojqCOY-1XPXROisG4Po9Nkb6OnNsTrN6k0L=
JcJOJONhDsbPRgifaRVygFg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38272035 38182001 37831968 37571942 37331915=20
            36971891 36721873 36321848 35901843 35521836=20
            35221832 34971834 34841827 34741819 34571798=20
            34431770 34211751 33701731 33421737 33301751=20
            33371780 33531808 33731854 33941886 34171944=20
            34311996 34392049 34632083 35042075 35462110=20
            35742154 36052182 36272201 36502205 36772190=20
            36922165 36932137 36932111 36612059 36272038=20
            35892001 35481969 35451947 35521930 35601916=20
            35821912 36111908 36321915 36761950 36841962=20
            37121992 37452031 37682053 38012066 38212058=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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