Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 27 2022 08:21:45

ACUS03 KWNS 270821
SWODY3
SPC AC 270820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Tue Dec 27 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST
TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday
night from east Texas and western Louisiana northward into western
Arkansas.

....Arklatex...
A mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the Sangre de
Cristos along the CO/NM border to the Upper Great Lakes during the
period.  An area of low pressure extending from KS into MN will
consolidate as a low moves to near Lake Superior late.  A Pacific
cold front will push east across parts of the southern Great Plains
into the lower MO Valley.

Southerly low-level flow from the western Gulf northward into the
Ozarks will contribute to a gradually moistening and destabilizing
airmass.  Model guidance shows a plume of moisture with upper 50s
deg F dewpoints reaching as far north as I-40 in western AR and
lower to mid 60s in the lower Sabine Valley.  With the mid-level
feature only expected to glance the region, weak but persistent
low-level warm air advection and moistening will likely aid in
scattered showers/thunderstorms developing by late afternoon,
despite the prevalence of clouds inhibiting strong heating.  Veering
and strengthening flow with height into the mid levels will favor
organized storms with the stronger updrafts, especially over TX/LA
where greater buoyancy is forecast (1000 J/kg MLCAPE).  This
activity will likely shift eastward during the evening into the
overnight and weaken late as instability wanes with east extent.

...Smith.. 12/27/2022

$$

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