Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 26 2022 08:03:51

FOUS30 KWBC 260803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Mon Dec 26 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 26 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 27 2022

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A shortwave trough will weaken as it drifts into British Columbia
today. A potent upper-level low will move into the Pacific
Northwest region tonight, kicking off a relatively brief but
impactful atmospheric river event. A dying cold front with weak
onshore flow will spread rain showers across the coastal ranges of
the Pacific Northwest this morning before mostly diminishing this
afternoon. A stronger low pressure system will move into the
region early this evening, bringing with it a deeper plume of
subtropical moisture. PWATs of around 1.25 inches are likely with
this moisture regime. Rain rates as high as 0.75in/hr and a 50kt
low level jet will contribute to the slight risk of excessive
rainfall over the coastal ranges of southern Oregon and northern
California. Relatively moist/susceptible soils will provide
favorable conditions for flash flooding of burn scars and urban
areas. High snow levels will certainly allow for heavy
rainfall/flash flooding potential along the windward side of the
Cascades.

Kebede


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_YtwuSrixV93shfYVa1p2HNIyakSjgPasJD6jZHkGpED=
ZddaIzqVmdJqOlaR3eYjYKtTsHtLQHrPrn9so_hpqjOqwEE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_YtwuSrixV93shfYVa1p2HNIyakSjgPasJD6jZHkGpED=
ZddaIzqVmdJqOlaR3eYjYKtTsHtLQHrPrn9so_hpNeOyEWM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_YtwuSrixV93shfYVa1p2HNIyakSjgPasJD6jZHkGpED=
ZddaIzqVmdJqOlaR3eYjYKtTsHtLQHrPrn9so_hp6AUKupg$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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