Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 25 2022 17:14:42

ACUS02 KWNS 251714
SWODY2
SPC AC 251712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Sporadic thunderstorms may occur over parts of northern California
and southwest Oregon Monday night into Tuesday morning. Severe
weather is not expected.

....Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Plains into the Southeast on
Monday, with a cold front and high pressure reinforcing the stable
air mass from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Coast. To the west,
the upper ridge will continue to break down over the Pacific
Northwest as an intense mid/upper level jet streak noses into
northern CA and OR into Tuesday morning. An associated deep surface
low is forecast to approach Vancouver Island and the west coast of
WA, enhancing surface convergence.

QG forcing for ascent will increase Monday night across northern CA
and into southwest OR as height falls occur along with low-level
warm advection. Here, MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg may develop behind the
initial warm advection precipitation and as the stronger cooling
aloft steepens lapse rates, most likely after 09Z. Forecast
soundings reveal that some of these storms will be elevated, though
SBCAPE will develop near the coast closer to 12Z. Given very strong
winds just off the surface, a few strong wind gusts may occur.

...Jewell.. 12/25/2022

$$

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