Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 25 2022 09:43:06

ACUS48 KWNS 250942
SWOD48
SPC AC 250941

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2022

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to show an increase in convective
potential late this week into the weekend as a progressive upper-air
pattern ensues.  Severe potential will likely be nil on Wednesday
(day 4) as a mean mid-level trough is depicted in deterministic
guidance to move through the Desert Southwest.  The early return
flow into the northwest part of the Gulf Coast will lead to an
increase in moisture and resulting clouds and convective potential
on Thursday.  Models vary regarding the evolution of ejecting
disturbances into the central U.S. during the Thursday-Friday
period.  However, persistent southerly flow into the Arklatex
vicinity will probably yield richer low-level moisture being
available, especially by Friday.  Models exhibit larger spread by
next weekend, effectively limiting predictability for severe
thunderstorms.

...Smith.. 12/25/2022

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