Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 25 2022 08:31:04

FOUS30 KWBC 250830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 25 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 26 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...

A pair of surface waves will bring a couple of rounds of moderate
rainfall to the coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest on this
Christmas day. The first round of rainfall will arrive with a weak
cold front this afternoon. The second round of rainfall will
arrive early Monday morning as a stronger cold front supported by
an upper-level shortwave trough moves into the region. PWATs will
remain modest at around an inch throughout the 24 hour period.
Rain rates will remain relatively low as well at around 0.1in/hr
at their peak. The heaviest rainfall footprint is expected to
occur over the Olympic mountains where temperatures are expected
to remain above freezing.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 26 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 27 2022

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

The slight risk area inherited from day 3 remains mostly
unchanged. An atmospheric river event is expected to unfold from
the southern Oregon coast to northern California on Monday.
Pacific moisture will continue advecting into the Pacific
Northwest on Monday morning and afternoon as Sunday's dying cold
front pushes into the interior Northwest. PWATs will remain
modest, though, around 1 inch. Rain rates will be between
..1-.25in/hr from the coast to the northern Cascades through Monday
afternoon.

A mid-latitude cyclone supported by a closed upper-level low and a
50-65kt low level jet will kick out the previous system and arrive
over the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday morning. A potent
moisture regime will follow and overspread the coastal ranges of
southern Oregon and northern/central California. Rain rates
between 0.25-0.75in/hr are likely early in the morning with the
highest rates expected over the Oregon/California border.

Kebede


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_mZaphShffrtcUFhWCNrMGvd08cz4vI8rK6igHSgF6WB=
6CI9tCPltPTiZSzXr2Ku1Cl32afDz0PkjXV5ZhZIBNimlyA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_mZaphShffrtcUFhWCNrMGvd08cz4vI8rK6igHSgF6WB=
6CI9tCPltPTiZSzXr2Ku1Cl32afDz0PkjXV5ZhZIfY994h0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_mZaphShffrtcUFhWCNrMGvd08cz4vI8rK6igHSgF6WB=
6CI9tCPltPTiZSzXr2Ku1Cl32afDz0PkjXV5ZhZIz4SEFjg$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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