Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 24 2022 19:08:30

ACUS01 KWNS 241908
SWODY1
SPC AC 241906

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Dec 24 2022

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Little if any thunderstorms are expected through tonight.  An
isolated flash cannot be ruled out over parts of Oregon.

No changes were made from the previous outlook. Weak elevated MUCAPE
around 100-200 J/kg may develop toward 00Z over parts of southwest
Oregon with warm advection near 850 mb south of the main upper
trough. However, overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to
remain below the 10% threshold.

...Jewell.. 12/24/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2022/

....Synopsis...
A cold, continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS, in
the wake of a deep cyclone now over western QC.  A midlevel
shortwave trough will crest the ridge along the Pacific coast while
moving over WA later today.  Very weak midlevel buoyancy will
accompany the warm advection regime today near the WA/OR coast, and
some shallow/post-frontal buoyancy is expected by this evening.  In
both cases, the threat for thunderstorms over land is too low to
warrant the addition of an outlook area.

$$

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