Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 24 2022 08:11:18

FOUS30 KWBC 240811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Sat Dec 24 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 24 2022 - 12Z Sun Dec 25 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON...

A weak shortwave trough will arrive over British Columbia today.
The surface wave associated with this system will advect a shallow
plume of moisture into the Pacific Northwest along a weak and
progressive cold front. PWAT's between 0.5-1.25 inches and
anomalies of 2-3 standard deviations will support periods of heavy
rain throughout the day before wrapping up early this evening.
Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible, especially over
the higher elevations of the Olympics and Washington/Oregon
Cascades.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 25 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 26 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON...

Another weak shortwave trough will break off from an upper low and
arrive over British Columbia early Monday morning. Therefore, any
rain impacts associated with this system will take place later in
the day 2 period (early Monday morning). Moderate to heavy
rainfall may focus along the higher elevations of the
Washington/Oregon coastal ranges. PWAT's hovering around 1 inch
will be 2-3 standard deviations above average for the region. The
progressive nature of this system will mitigate any impacts from
potential heavy rainfall as well.

Kebede


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Y_PDZ7XqROE3lVDqOEX4_CRqC5vDxYJOopKi0Yl_cVL=
Vcyl2L7PlJfWOnLzVoO5rR1wQueQYxlyKQU6ntKAlaH2Fqw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Y_PDZ7XqROE3lVDqOEX4_CRqC5vDxYJOopKi0Yl_cVL=
Vcyl2L7PlJfWOnLzVoO5rR1wQueQYxlyKQU6ntKAru_JuVE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Y_PDZ7XqROE3lVDqOEX4_CRqC5vDxYJOopKi0Yl_cVL=
Vcyl2L7PlJfWOnLzVoO5rR1wQueQYxlyKQU6ntKAKKfP-EQ$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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