Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 23 2022 21:18:07

AWUS01 KWNH 232118
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232117Z - 240300Z

Summary...Convective trends suggest a continuation of flash flood
potential across Maine through 03Z.

Discussion...Between 18-19Z, convection across eastern New
Hampshire and western Maine began to deepen an intensify as
mid-level forcing from a shortwave trough centered over southern
New England approaches the area.  Meanwhile, strongly confluent
low-level flow remained in place near the axis of strongest
convection, and a more favorable orientation of the axis (parallel
to mid-level flow aloft) allowed for localized training and an
increase in rainfall rates to around 0.3-0.5 inch/hr.  The
multiple hours of rainfall and sensitive ground conditions (snow
melt, low ground absorption of water, and full tributaries) has
caused numerous issues with street and occasional structural
flooding throughout the day.

These ongoing trends are expected to continue - especially as
minimal instability (~250J/kg MUCAPE) has materialized in portions
of southern New England.  Both observations and model guidance
suggest a continued flood/flash flood threat across southwestern
Maine in the short term (through 23Z) gradually translating
eastward toward central Maine (in the 22-01Z timeframe) and in
eastern Maine especially after 00Z.  Warming surface temperatures
(associated with strong warm advection) will continue to promote
snow melt and enhanced runoff during this time period, with
snowfall earlier this morning perhaps playing a role in the
ongoing risk as well.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7QvyyrtSZWXgycSXVgNTOsbNb3CTdtCLYA9UanpGB7aVmyU4GxQmq38GjQ6OrZCAYzRK=
6g0Q5tJRYm5a9O3EwOeqO5A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47266938 47236841 47076781 46156711 45116682=20
            44186731 43186819 42836921 43207051 45397114=20
            46107055=20

=3D =3D =3D
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