Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 23 2022 16:21:06

AWUS01 KWNH 231620
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-232219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

Areas affected...eastern New York into southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231619Z - 232219Z

Summary...Areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will
continue to drive isolated to scattered flash flood potential
across the discussion area through 22Z.

Discussion...Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue to migrate northward downstream of a strong mid-level low
centered over Ohio.  Strong low-level flow (50 knots at 850mb) was
located along an axis from Long Island northward through New
England, which was contributing to continued precipitation due to
isentropic and topographic ascent.  Instability profiles are
relatively marginal (only 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC
Mesoanalysis).  Radar mosaic/MRMS data indicate a few areas of
0.2-0.5 inch/hr rainfall rates near Portland over the past hour,
with more localized/banded convection resulting in 0.2-0.4 inch/hr
rain rates farther west across eastern New York and Vermont.  MRMS
Flash responses were maximized near Portland, although local
moderate responses were noted near and south of Albany, NY over
the past hour as well.

Observations and models both indicate that the general regime
should continue through 22Z.  Of greatest concern is the warming
low-level temperatures especially across New England that, when
combined with locally heavy rainfall, could result in
snowmelt-enhanced runoff.  A few issues with excessive
runoff/flooding have been reported this morning, and additional
reports are possible as multiple rounds of rainfall/isolated
thunderstorms continue across the discussion area through 22Z.=20
Portions of eastern New York should experience a transition to
snowfall through 22Z in tandem with eastward progression of a
strong arctic cold front, eventually reducing the already isolated
flash flood risk there.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4ItsmJviOLxhpBwQY8RV_1bap71cY7wZnJ9vz3D6-IB-ct8n8LNTCfO4DawEAmuuxL26=
ek6R3_Ep2jncOzSRrwUKs3I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45376856 44906799 44276818 43546965 42907041=20
            42307094 41447209 41027439 42037480 42677479=20
            43287436 43937303 44367183 44897051 45356925=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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