Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 23 2022 15:52:21

ACUS11 KWNS 231552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231551=20
NYZ000-232145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2022

Areas affected...western New York State

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 231551Z - 232145Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow with lake-enhanced rates of 1-2+ in/hr and
localized blizzard conditions possible through much of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of a strong surface low and cold front
moving across the northeastern US, snow is forecast to increase in
intensity and persists across portions of western NY State through
much of this afternoon. Over the last 90 min, snow has increased in
intensity with below 1/4 mile visibility and heavy snow reported at
several locations along the eastern shores of lake Erie. As the
surface low is forecast to drift slowly northeastward, low and
mid-level winds are expected to become more southwesterly with time,
aligning more favorably with the lake axis. Significant
lake-enhancement of ongoing snow is expected within the post-frontal
arctic airmass. Rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized rates greater than
2+ in/hr are possible. In addition to the heavy snow, the strong
fetch of low-level southwesterly flow will be enhanced by strong
surface pressure gradients along the backside of the surface low.
Numerous gusts greater than 50 mph have been noted across western NY
State in the last 2 hours. Localized blizzard conditions are likely
along the immediate lake shore, where heavy blowing snow and strong
wind gusts to 50-60 mph will likely persist well into the afternoon.

...Lyons.. 12/23/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_bFvEGFFWYe4oOD2vpludurEkSJbKfFQXxu3FfQ65Uy57UlS3e9GHLfrm_l8Fff56dthnlEde=
Gal8BOLmPs7kSZDTjo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   43397899 43457851 43427796 43387781 43277759 43097778
            42927800 42757828 42607871 42527890 42447912 42387930
            42377938 42457945 42637930 42807911 42937913 43117915
            43397899=20


=3D =3D =3D
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