Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 23 2022 08:33:56

FOUS30 KWBC 230833
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 23 2022 - 12Z Sat Dec 24 2022

....A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

The threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts of interior
New England to the coast of Maine today as a plume of moisture,
supported by onshore flow and a strong low level jet, enters the
region. A deep upper-level low will continue pushing it's surface
reflection and powerful attendant cold front through the Ohio
Valley and East Coast today. A coastal low and attendant
quasi-stationary front will lift north this afternoon, advecting
with it a plume of anomalous moisture into portions of the
Northeast. The merging of the two systems will allow for the
enhancement of precipitation, especially over the terrain of New
Hampshire and Maine where 50kt+ low level jet winds will support
rain rates of around 0.5in/hr. Precipitation should start as snow
early this morning before quickly transitioning into a steady
rainfall today and wrapping up as snow tonight.

The slight risk from yesterday's issuance was adjusted by cutting
back the southern tip into northern New Hampshire to account for
heightened FFGs and the latest 00z guidance suite, which suggest a
more northerly solution with the axis of greatest QPF. There are
concerns of melting snow causing additional flash flooding
concerns. The heaviest rainfall should come to an end by this
evening.

Kebede



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WIczepI17m-2Q6LVfgG6GeoZ0JNDM7sZ8ZNcc53HN98=
Ha6eKtgGxPxxZxLANJ9wrwclVTVGBZsT0OXqdTUYix-B-Oc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WIczepI17m-2Q6LVfgG6GeoZ0JNDM7sZ8ZNcc53HN98=
Ha6eKtgGxPxxZxLANJ9wrwclVTVGBZsT0OXqdTUYxcbzjbQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9WIczepI17m-2Q6LVfgG6GeoZ0JNDM7sZ8ZNcc53HN98=
Ha6eKtgGxPxxZxLANJ9wrwclVTVGBZsT0OXqdTUYnsztxiI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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