Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 23 2022 00:38:46

ACUS01 KWNS 230038
SWODY1
SPC AC 230036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight
over the western and central part of the Florida Peninsula.

....Western and Central Florida Peninsula...
An upper-level trough will move into the Mississippi Valley this
evening, as an associated 100 to 130 knot mid-level jet noses into
the southern Appalachian Mountains. At the surface, a strong cold
front will advance eastward across the Southeast and west-central
Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, a moist axis with surface
dewpoints generally from 65 to 70 F, will move eastward toward the
western Florida Peninsula this evening. Moderate instability is
analyzed within this south-to-north corridor of maximized low-level
moisture, with several thunderstorms ongoing. These storms will
approach the Florida coast and move inland this evening. The
southern edge of the mid-level jet is creating strong deep-layer
shear, favorable for supercells with marginally severe wind gusts
and hail. However, a lack of large-scale ascent will keep any severe
threat isolated. The threat could persist into the early overnight
period as the moisture and instability axis moves inland across
western Florida.

...Broyles.. 12/23/2022

$$

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