Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 22 2022 16:31:17 ACUS01 KWNS 221631 SWODY1 SPC AC 221629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL AND EASTERN NC... ....SUMMARY... A severe thunderstorm remains possible this afternoon across far eastern North Carolina. A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight, mainly over western portions of central to south Florida. ....Central to south FL... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing over the Loop Current in the east-central Gulf within a modest low-level warm advection regime. This regime will gradually shift east towards the west coast of FL through this evening and across the peninsula tonight. Typically, this setup would yield convection weakening as it approaches the relatively cooler waters along the west coast. But a strengthening mid-level jetlet, separate yet influenced by amplification of the longwave trough centered over the north-central states, could support offshore supercells reaching the coast. Low-level flow will modestly amplify, stronger north and weaker south, while gradually veering from southwest to west overnight. This could yield a marginal severe threat spreading somewhat inland before weakening towards dawn. ....Eastern NC... A 1011-mb surface low near the NC/SC coastal border should deepen somewhat as it tracks northeast over eastern NC this afternoon. The corridor of surface-based instability near this cyclone will remain quite narrow inland of the shelf waters as abundant elevated showers and thunderstorms persist in the warm conveyor downstream. This process will likely mitigate diabatic destabilization until after convection passes by, but mid-level subsidence will ensue with substantial drying and weak warming aloft. This setup suggests that the environment conditionally favorable for surface-based supercells may remain storm-free, which is largely supported by morning CAM guidance. The southern Outer Banks should have the relatively greatest potential for a supercell to brush the region during the afternoon, with a brief severe wind gust or weak tornado possible. ...Grams/Moore.. 12/22/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .