Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2060
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 22 2022 15:23:43

ACUS11 KWNS 221523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221523=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...southwest North Dakota into
central South Dakota

Concerning...Blizzard=20

Valid 221523Z - 221930Z

SUMMARY...Ground blizzard conditions will persist well into the
afternoon hours - especially across open country - from far eastern
Montana into southwest North Dakota and central South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Latest observations from eastern MT, southwest ND, and
into central SD show sustained wind speeds between 25-30 knots.
These winds are near the top of the wind speed distribution from
latest hi-res ensemble guidance and are forecast to gradually
increase through the afternoon. Although snowfall amounts over the
past 24-48 hours have been minimal (generally in the 1-2 inch
range), significant visibility reductions are noted in surface
observations and regional web cams, suggesting that at least a
portion of the pre-existing snow pack is blowable. Using the current
and forecast temperature/wind speeds, blowing snow model
probabilities suggest that persistent blizzard conditions will
continue well into the afternoon - especially in open country.
Blizzard conditions will likely be more widespread/persistent across
portions of west/northwest SD where frequent wind gusts between
35-45 knots are expected through early afternoon.

...Moore.. 12/22/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5uUR6z_21b5TX9gC6NPZ_sDd6XxrgtRGGyIQ3lQvIcn2AvVhAWLi1Na86Jxd1P9IQPCZFRNie=
U4J0IsG-U6_w4sOZR8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   44130237 44900356 46120502 46780523 47250482 47240380
            45209811 44809773 44039777 43359802 43119881 43280023
            43610112 44130237=20


=3D =3D =3D
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