Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 22 2022 05:44:13 ACUS01 KWNS 220544 SWODY1 SPC AC 220542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday over the eastern Carolinas, as well as parts of the Florida Peninsula. ....01z Update... Strong mid-level speed max is forecast to dig southeast into the TN Valley Friday evening where it should increase in excess of 150kt before translating into western VA late in the period. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature with 300m falls expected across a large part of the OH Valley. While the primary surface cyclone will mature well inland over the Great Lakes region, early-day surface wave near the SC Coast will lift north during the day. This should allow modified maritime boundary layer to spread across the eastern Carolinas and adequate buoyancy is expected to evolve such that a few robust updrafts may ultimately evolve within the warm sector where near-surface-based instability may be noted. Strong low-level warm advection will be the primary mechanism for convective development, especially through 18z as LLJ will be focused across eastern ND into southeast VA. Forecast soundings suggest some threat for supercell development and damaging winds would likely be the primary risk. Although a brief tornado can not be ruled out where surface dew points are able to rise into the lower 60s. Severe threat will decrease during the latter half of the period as winds veer. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, mid-level flow is forecast to increase at low latitudes as aforementioned 500mb speed max strengthens over the TN Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak surface wave could evolve over the Gulf Basin but this feature will struggle to mature and should not move inland. The primary concern will be diurnally-enhanced buoyancy and the potential for scattered convection to evolve within an increasingly sheared environment. While forecast lapse rates will be marginal, surface dew points are expected to rise through the upper 60s to near 70F across the southern FL Gulf Coast. This will aid buoyancy and the prospect for a few robust updrafts. Gusty winds are the primary concern but a brief tornado can not be ruled out with this storms. ...Darrow/Weinman.. 12/22/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .