Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 21 2022 19:47:09

ACUS01 KWNS 211947
SWODY1
SPC AC 211945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the prior outlook.

...Gleason.. 12/21/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022/

....Synopsis...
Mid-morning surface observations and satellite imagery reveal a cold
front meandering southward along the FL peninsula with a weak, broad
surface low off the FL east coast. Despite somewhat weak inhibition
sampled in the MFL and KEY RAOBs, subsidence overspreading the
region (evident in low-level water-vapor imagery) has stunted any
convective development thus far. However, daytime heating should
foster gradual destabilization through the day, and weak forcing
along the front may be adequate for isolated convection across south
FL. While strong mid to upper-level flow will continue to support
nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, weak CAPE profiles of the
most-unstable layer coupled with increasing mid-level dry air
suggests updraft strengths will remain modest and will limit the
potential for organized severe convection.

The low off the FL coast is expected to shift north into the
Carolinas during the overnight hours in response to increasing
850-700 mb warm advection. Warming, saturation, and lift within this
layer will steepen mid-level lapse rates and support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development overnight across the Carolinas.
Deeper, more robust convection appears most probable along the SC
coast where warmer low-level temperatures will support deeper parcel
trajectories and effective shear values near 30 knots. A few
instances of small hail and/or strong wind gusts are possible, but
the overall severe threat is expected to remain low.

$$

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