Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 21 2022 17:30:13 ACUS02 KWNS 211730 SWODY2 SPC AC 211728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, as well as parts of the Florida Peninsula. ....Eastern North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia... A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward Thursday across the central/eastern CONUS. A strong cold front will sweep east- southeastward over these regions in tandem with the upper trough. A secondary surface low over coastal SC Thursday morning is forecast to develop northeastward across central/eastern NC and southeastern VA through the day. The inland return of low-level moisture across coastal/eastern NC should be limited owing to residual surface ridging over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast that should be slow to erode. Still, it appears that upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow corridor over eastern NC and far southeastern VA as the surface low develops northeastward. Poor lapse rates and only modest daytime heating will likely keep instability weak, even though low-level and deep-layer shear are forecast to be quite strong. Given the strength of the low-level flow, isolated strong/damaging winds may occur with low-topped convection spreading quickly northeastward through the morning and afternoon. Better tornado potential should remain offshore where greater low-level moisture is present, but a brief tornado appears possible along the immediate NC Coast and Outer Banks. ....Florida Peninsula... Rich low-level moisture will likely remain confined along/south of a residual front across the FL Peninsula on Thursday. This region will remain mostly displaced to the south of ascent associated with the upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. However, a strong west-southwesterly mid-level jet will spread over much of FL through the day. Low-level convergence along the surface boundary should remain weak. But, any convection that can develop along/south of this boundary could become organized in the presence of weak instability and strong deep-layer shear. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat if any thunderstorm can be sustained. ...Gleason.. 12/21/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .