Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 21 2022 12:37:39 ACUS01 KWNS 211237 SWODY1 SPC AC 211236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS will become considerably more cyclonic through the period, as a cyclone initially centered over SK moves southeastward to ND, deepens and expands. By 12Z tomorrow, the result should be a broad fetch of cyclonic flow from the Rockies across the Plains States to both the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast. As this occurs, an intense cold front -- drawn at 11Z across parts of southwestern MT and northern WY -- will strengthen further and accelerate southeastward down the Plains. By 12Z, surface cyclogenesis is forecast over WI, with the front extending from there across northwestern IL, central/southwestern MO, south-central OK, the TX South Plains, and portions of east-central/northeastern NM. The air mass near this front will be too stable to support thunderstorms. However, a complex surface pattern around the Southeast Coast at least indirectly will support some thunder potential over parts of south FL and the Carolinas. Lows initially analyzed over the Gulf west of southwestern FL, and over the Atlantic roughly east of JAX, will meander near their present positions through the daylight hours, connected by a convectively reinforced frontal zone arching around southern FL, and more directly by a surface trough and weak front across central FL. Another low may develop on the front over the northwestern Bahamas or Straits east of MIA by evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and adjacent waters near the front, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in the morning MFL/KEY RAOBS launched in somewhat cooler boundary-layer air. The northern low should move northward tonight toward coastal SC and strengthen somewhat, as should an increasingly moist, elevated warm-advection conveyor supporting an area of precip, convection and embedded thunder spreading inland over the Carolinas. ...Edwards/Kerr.. 12/21/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .