Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 21 2022 06:49:36

ACUS02 KWNS 210649
SWODY2
SPC AC 210647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern parts of
North Carolina and Virginia on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
There is high confidence in a very dynamic mid-level trough/low
forecast to move across the central U.S. into the OH Valley during
the period.  A bombing cyclone will move from the Ozarks/mid MS
Valley northeastward into Lower MI as a powerful arctic cold front
sweeps east/southeast across the central U.S.

....NC/VA...
During the day, a residual surface ridge and associated wedge of
continental polar air in lee of the Appalachians will gradually
erode, as a weak low develops northward through the Carolina coastal
plain.  Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and
spread from south to north across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic states during the day within a strengthening
warm-air-advection regime.  Model guidance continues to suggest a
possibility for weak surface-based destabilization to occur over
eastern NC northward into southeast VA during the afternoon/evening.
A convective band capable of damaging gusts may evolve during the
late afternoon/evening before moving offshore and northeastward and
become elevated over the Delmarva.

...Smith.. 12/21/2022

$$

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