Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 21 2022 05:49:05

ACUS01 KWNS 210549
SWODY1
SPC AC 210547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will amplify over the central CONUS, peripheral
to a deepening midlevel cyclone over the northern Plains. As this
occurs, broad midlevel cyclonic flow will gradually strengthen over
the eastern CONUS, while an embedded cyclonic impulse tracks
northeastward from the southern Plains toward the Mid-Atlantic
states during the overnight hours. In response, a weak surface low
-- currently evident off the northeast FL coast -- will lift
northward along a baroclinic zone draped along the coastal GA/SC
vicinity.

In the 08-12Z time frame, warm advection will strengthen ahead of
the northward-lifting surface low, supporting a quick uptick in
thunderstorm development over the Gulf Stream and SC Coastal Plain.
Rich boundary-layer moisture will generally remain offshore, where
surface-based storms will be possible. While any inland storm
development will be elevated atop a stable boundary layer (northwest
of the baroclinic zone), a strong/loosely organized storm or two --
aided by modest low-level hodograph curvature -- could approach the
immediate SC coast before rapidly weakening over land. Farther
south, additional isolated thunderstorms are possible along a
remnant surface boundary over far South FL and the Keys. However,
weak boundary-layer convergence and poor deep-layer lapse rates
should limit convective coverage and intensity.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 12/21/2022

$$

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