Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 21 2022 00:57:35

ACUS01 KWNS 210057
SWODY1
SPC AC 210056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of locally strong gusts remain possible
across the Florida Keys vicinity overnight.

....01Z Update...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
tracking eastward across the central Gulf Coast, accompanied by a
belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow per regional VWP
data. An associated surface low is moving eastward across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, preceded by a strong/organized cluster
of eastward-advancing thunderstorms located approximately 45 miles
south of Apalachicola, FL. This activity will generally
spread/expand east-southeastward and gradually weaken prior to
reaching western FL tonight.

Farther southeast, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along an outflow-modified surface boundary draped across the
FL Keys vicinity. 55-65 kt of 0-6-km bulk shear (per BYX VWP data)
is supporting transient updraft organization given lower 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints and related surface-based inflow. These
storms will generally continue through the overnight hours, focused
along the east-west-oriented surface boundary across the Keys and
perhaps far southern FL. Locally strong gusts are the primary
concern with the more organized/persistent clusters, though a brief
waterspout cannot be ruled out as well.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 12/21/2022

$$

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