Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 20 2022 19:54:04

ACUS01 KWNS 201953
SWODY1
SPC AC 201952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

....SUMMARY...
While severe storms are unlikely, a severe wind gust is possible
across the Florida Keys vicinity this evening.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across far south FL
and the Keys. An 18Z sounding from KEY indicates that poor
low/mid-level lapse rates remain present. Low-level moisture will
need to further increase to support weak instability and potential
for surface-based convection later this evening. Most guidance
continues to suggest that thunderstorms will gradually weaken as
they approach the Keys and far south FL tonight.

...Gleason.. 12/20/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022/

....FL Keys...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along a weak
baroclinic/convergence zone over the western FL Straits, south and
west of the Keys, should spread east-northeast into this evening
towards the coastal waters adjacent to the southern tip of the
peninsula. Farther west, an MCS across the east-central Gulf should
persist east-southeast along the baroclinic zone, but weaken as it
moves east of the Loop Current. The 12Z KEY sounding sampled weak,
near-moist-adiabatic lapse rates that are not expected to steepen
during the period, which will limit updraft strength. In addition,
low-level winds should remain modest, yielding only minor
enhancement to the low-level hodograph. The bulk of deep-layer shear
contribution will be from strengthening winds above 700 mb. Overall
setup suggests convection this evening will most likely remain
sub-severe and weaken with approach to land over the Keys and
adjacent portion of the southern Everglades.

$$

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