Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 20 2022 16:17:02

ACUS01 KWNS 201616
SWODY1
SPC AC 201615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FL KEYS
VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
While severe storms are unlikely, a severe wind gust is possible
across the Florida Keys vicinity this evening.

....FL Keys...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along a weak
baroclinic/convergence zone over the western FL Straits, south and
west of the Keys, should spread east-northeast into this evening
towards the coastal waters adjacent to the southern tip of the
peninsula. Farther west, an MCS across the east-central Gulf should
persist east-southeast along the baroclinic zone, but weaken as it
moves east of the Loop Current. The 12Z KEY sounding sampled weak,
near-moist-adiabatic lapse rates that are not expected to steepen
during the period, which will limit updraft strength. In addition,
low-level winds should remain modest, yielding only minor
enhancement to the low-level hodograph. The bulk of deep-layer shear
contribution will be from strengthening winds above 700 mb. Overall
setup suggests convection this evening will most likely remain
sub-severe and weaken with approach to land over the Keys and
adjacent portion of the southern Everglades.

...Grams/Moore.. 12/20/2022

$$

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