Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 20 2022 08:27:29

ACUS03 KWNS 200827
SWODY3
SPC AC 200826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of North
Carolina and Virginia on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
A highly dynamic pattern will materialize on Thursday over the
central and eastern U.S. and feature a deep, large-scale mid-level
trough/low moving from the central U.S. to the OH Valley - southern
Appalachians.  A bombing cyclone will move from the Ozark Plateau
Thursday morning to Lower MI late Thursday night as an arctic front
sweeps eastward across much of the South and OH Valley.

Strong low-level warm/moist advection will lead to a warm sector
gradually penetrating the Carolina coastal plain on Thursday.
Showers and developing thunderstorms (elevated) will likely
overspread the Carolinas from southwest to northeast and into VA
during the day.  Uncertainty remains high regarding the possibility
of a surface-based warm sector developing prior to a mid-level dry
slot and subsidence overspreading the Carolinas during the late
afternoon.  Nonetheless, the possibility of a forced band of
convection and an incipient wind-damage risk prompt the inclusion of
low severe probabilities this forecast update.

...Smith.. 12/20/2022

$$

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